Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia

Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa

This paper is the first one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules, augmented with an indicator of financial stability, for the case of South Africa, and (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule specifications, as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models, to forecast the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South ...

U Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy

HOULD MONETARY POLICY be determined by a legislated rule or by a monetary authority’s discretion? Henry Simons (1936) first raised this issue as a choice between rules and authorities, terms little different than those used in recent discussions. He stresses the value of a rule, such as a law, instead of reliance on an authority’s discretion because “definite, stable, legislative rules of the g...

Monetary policy in Russia: Recent challenges and changes

Increasing trade and financial flows between the world’s countries has been a double-edged sword for emerging market economies (EMEs). On the one hand, it has given EMEs ample opportunities to benefit from world economic growth and from the significant financial resources accumulated by developed countries. On the other hand, EMEs have become more vulnerable to shocks in global financial market...

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations. This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update th...

Introductory Remarks on Monetary Policy Rules